Robust decisions for declaring eradication of invasive species

Abstract

Invasive species threaten biodiversity, and their eradication is desirable whenever possible. Deciding whether an invasive species has been successfully eradicated is difficult because of imperfect detection. Two previous studies [Regan et al., Ecology Letters, 9 (2006), 759; Rout et al., Journal of Applied Ecology, 46 (2009), 110] have used a decision theory framework to minimize the total expected cost by finding the number of consecutive surveys without detection (absent surveys) after which a species should be declared eradicated. These two studies used different methods to calculate the probability that the invasive species is present when it has not been detected for a number of survey..